Economic growth in Pakistan for fiscal year 2025-26 has been adjusted downward to 3.65 percent from an initial projection of 3.70 percent. The final quarter saw growth slow to 2 percent, following updated national accounts cleared by the National Accounts Committee on October 19.

The Pakistan Bureau of Statistics stated in a press release after the 118th meeting of the committee that the updated figures factored in recent import data along with adjustments to annual and quarterly economic metrics. The economy reached a value of Rs. 126.4 trillion, or $450.4 billion, during FY26, while per capita income reached Rs. 531,897, which translates to $1,896.

Economic growth for FY25 was also adjusted to 3.11 percent down from the previous figure of 3.18 percent. The committee updated the first three quarters of FY26 while also setting a new figure for the fourth quarter.

First quarter GDP growth moved slightly down to 3.89 percent from 3.92 percent. Second quarter expansion went up to 4.31 percent from 4.05 percent, and the third quarter estimate climbed to 4.42 percent from 3.99 percent.

The economy expanded 2 percent in the fourth quarter, compared to 6.07 percent during the same period in FY25. The bureau linked this slower expansion partly to the high comparative base from the prior year.

Agriculture expanded 3.71 percent in the final quarter, up from 0.58 percent the previous year. Services went up 3.62 percent, dropping from 4.21 percent. Industry shrank 4.70 percent after posting growth of 20 percent in the corresponding quarter last year.

The industrial slump tied closely to a 33.19 percent drop in electricity, gas and water supply, which officials connected to reduced subsidies, a high deflator and a strong base effect.

Agriculture growth improves as crop output rises

Annual agricultural growth for FY26 was adjusted upward to 3.50 percent from 2.89 percent, driven by stronger performance in key crops and farming sectors.

Important crops saw growth climb to 1.59 percent from 0.65 percent, aided by wheat and maize. Other crops grew 4.28 percent, rising from 2.43 percent.

Higher output was reported for pulses, fruits, tomatoes, oilseeds and green fodder. Pulses rose 6.3 percent, fruit output increased 1.3 percent, tomatoes jumped 44 percent, oilseeds grew 5.4 percent and green fodder went up 2.4 percent.

Livestock saw a slight downward revision to 3.71 percent from 3.75 percent. Forestry grew 10.80 percent, and fishing expanded 1.39 percent over the fiscal year.

For FY25, agricultural growth dropped to 1.32 percent from 1.53 percent, primarily due to downward revisions in forestry.

Industrial growth estimate cut as manufacturing slows

Industrial sector growth for FY26 was reduced to 3.34 percent from 3.51 percent. Although mining and quarrying performed better than expected, the reduction stemmed from weaker large-scale manufacturing and shifts in utility supplies.

Mining and quarrying growth rose to 1.52 percent from 0.38 percent, supported by a 2.84 percent increase in gas production, 5.12 percent in crude oil, and 2.73 percent in coal output.

Large-scale manufacturing growth, tracked via the Quantum Index of Manufacturing, dropped to 5.01 percent from 6.11 percent.

Several manufacturing segments continued to expand, including automobile production up 57.77 percent, transport equipment up 42.36 percent, electrical equipment up 14.25 percent, and rubber products up 14.19 percent. Food manufacturing rose 7.03 percent, petroleum products went up 9.7 percent, tobacco grew 12.61 percent, and furniture climbed 22.69 percent.

Conversely, pharmaceuticals shrank 8.87 percent, iron and steel products dropped 7.84 percent, chemicals fell 2.53 percent, and leather products declined 1.95 percent.

Construction growth moved up to 6.30 percent from 5.73 percent, reflecting higher public sector spending on construction.

Services sector growth revised downward

Services growth for FY26 was adjusted to 3.81 percent from 4.09 percent, led by a notable downward revision in the wholesale and retail trade sector.

Wholesale and retail trade growth dropped to 2.37 percent from 3.71 percent, which officials attributed to lower manufacturing output and reduced imports. Meanwhile, transportation and storage improved to 3.23 percent from 2.31 percent, following upward revisions in railways, water transport and air transport.

Information and communication growth was lifted to 9.53 percent from 7.52 percent. Finance and insurance activities also recovered, with growth climbing to 4.23 percent from 0.32 percent.

Other services stayed positive, with public administration and social security growing 5.67 percent, education expanding 4.17 percent, human health and social work rising 5.52 percent, and other private services increasing 4.01 percent.

The updated accounts place the economy at Rs. 126.4 trillion, or $450.4 billion, for FY26, compared with Rs. 114.9 trillion, or $408.7 billion, for FY25. Per capita income reached Rs. 531,897, or $1,896, during FY26.