Pakistan electricity purchase costs are projected to reach Rs. 27.309 per kilowatt-hour during the calendar year 2027. The Central Power Purchasing Agency-Guarantee Limited estimates a total procurement expense of Rs. 3.55 trillion under its base-case scenario for the upcoming tariff rebasing.
These projections form part of consumer-end electricity tariff rebasing for ex-Wapda distribution companies. The changes are scheduled to take effect on January 1, 2027, determining revised reference costs for the new period.
CPPA-G forecasts that the power purchase price will range from Rs. 25.883 per unit in an ideal scenario to Rs. 29.255 per unit in a second-worst-case scenario. This variation highlights potential effects from fuel expenses, currency fluctuations and capacity payments.
The National Electric Power Regulatory Authority scheduled a public hearing on November 3, 2026, at Nepra Tower in Islamabad, with online participation also permitted. Affected and interested parties received invitations to submit comments and objections.
Under the base case, CPPA-G assumes an annual electricity demand growth rate of 2.60 percent, an exchange rate of Rs. 279 per US dollar, and electricity sales of 130,081 gigawatt-hours to distribution companies.
Capacity charges form the largest share of projected costs at Rs. 1.91 trillion, which equals Rs. 14.717 per unit. Fuel costs are estimated at Rs. 1.32 trillion, or Rs. 10.141 per unit, while variable operations and maintenance expenses total Rs. 70.58 billion, or Rs. 0.543 per unit.
Transmission-related expenses and Ministry of Finance charges total a combined Rs. 248.30 billion, or Rs. 1.909 per unit. Capacity payments will remain a major component of procurement costs, while currency movements and fuel expenses may further affect the 2027 price.
Two worst-case scenarios assume the rupee weakens to Rs. 290 against the US dollar, compared to Rs. 279 in other projections. These assumptions raise the purchase price to Rs. 28.835 per unit in Worst Case-I and Rs. 29.255 per unit in Worst Case-II.
A demand-sensitivity scenario assumes annual demand growth of 0.70 percent, lowering electricity sales to 127,937 GWh. The purchase price in this instance reaches Rs. 27.568 per unit due to lower sales volumes and revised capacity-cost assumptions.
Another scenario evaluating re-gasified liquefied natural gas and gas sets the purchase price at Rs. 26.441 per unit. The ideal scenario estimates costs at Rs. 25.883 per unit primarily because of lower fuel expenses.
All six scenarios share assumptions including a Karachi Interbank Offered Rate of 11.70 percent, a Secured Overnight Financing Rate of 3.98 percent, US inflation of 2.10 percent, domestic inflation of 8.20 percent, and National Grid Company losses of 2.50 percent.
Regulatory scrutiny will apply to the projected power purchase price during the rebasing process. The forecast does not represent the final retail electricity tariff, which depends on Nepra determinations, applicable taxes, duties, subsidies, and other components.
The November 3 hearing will allow stakeholders to share perspectives on the cost projections and assumptions that shape the revised consumer-end tariff framework starting in January 2027.
