Pakistan is speeding toward a major national water and food security crisis because annual groundwater extraction exceeds natural replenishment, driven by an uncontrolled system of more than 1.5 million tubewells.
According to a new report from the Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, the nation draws 65 cubic kilometers of groundwater every year while natural recharge reaches only 55 cubic kilometers. This places the country as the fourth-largest groundwater user globally and the holder of the second-most overstressed aquifer system.
This disappearing supply currently provides nearly 60 percent of irrigation, over 70 percent of drinking water, and almost all industrial processes.
A growing public health emergency accompanies this supply shortage, as 70 to 80 percent of groundwater across the country is unsafe for consumption. High arsenic levels endanger up to 60 million people, and salinity damages 21 percent of irrigated land.
The study, named "Pakistan's Groundwater Crisis: Policy Lessons and a Framework for Sustainable Resource Use," points out that the water trouble stems from policy and governance failures instead of a true physical water shortage.
Even though Pakistan possesses underground storage capacity equal to about 50 large dams, past policy tendencies favored surface-water planning and left underground aquifers as open-access resources.
State interventions, including cheap electricity for tubewells and strong price supports for thirsty crops like rice and sugarcane, encourage continuous over-pumping. Punjab drives this trend, producing roughly 90 percent of all groundwater extraction in the country.
Because of this, water tables drop by one to three feet every year in key cities and farming centers like Lahore, Quetta, and Karachi.
The nation also stands out as the biggest global exporter of depleted groundwater found in farm exports such as rice, leather, and textiles. These goods make up 29 percent of worldwide trade reliant on overdrawn aquifers, placing Pakistan ahead of the United States and India.
The PIDE study provides a phased roadmap to prevent the nation from reaching a point of no return. Steps for the first 0 to 2 years feature universal licensing and metering for every extraction site, ending electricity subsidies that distort the market, and creating a strong National Groundwater Council.
Actions planned for 2 to 5 years involve changing water prices to show actual scarcity, moving farming toward crops that need less water, and setting up real-time tracking through a National Aquifer Mapping Programme.
Long-term goals past 5 years include separating old colonial water rights from land ownership, funding Managed Aquifer Recharge and wastewater treatment, and adding groundwater management into regional transboundary agreements.
The study states that without urgent political commitment and coordinated governance changes, the ongoing loss of aquifers will permanently damage economic stability, public health, and climate change readiness in Pakistan.
