According to a new World Bank study, artificial intelligence could reshape Pakistan's labour market, with 61% of service-sector employees in roles that have above-median AI exposure.
The paper, titled "Job Opportunities and AI in Pakistan," reports that the nation's average occupational AI exposure score for 2024 was 0.48 standard deviations below the median. Exposure differs sharply by industry, hitting services hardest while agriculture stays largely unaffected.
Within services, wholesale and retail trade, finance, insurance, real estate and education each have over 80% of their workforce in highly AI-exposed jobs. By contrast, manufacturing registers just 7%, other industrial sectors 5%, and agriculture less than 1%.
The report does not claim every exposed employee will lose a job. It notes that AI can also augment workers and raise output, with about 18% of Pakistan's employed population holding positions that are both highly AI-exposed and highly complementary to human skills. Only 8% work in highly exposed roles with low complementarity, suggesting fewer jobs face outright replacement.
Real estate and education mainly show complementary exposure, indicating room for AI-assisted productivity gains. Wholesale and retail trade, however, combines a large workforce with high AI exposure, making it pivotal for how the job market adjusts.
Agriculture employs a sizable share of the labour force but is concentrated in low-exposure occupations, limiting AI's immediate effect on farm workers, though the technology could eventually boost agricultural output.
The World Bank cautions that AI's impact will hinge on how firms and workers adopt the technology, as well as the availability of relevant skills and supporting investments. For Pakistan, the findings underscore the need to ready workers for evolving job requirements while helping businesses leverage AI for productivity.
