Foreign exchange reserves held by the State Bank of Pakistan are anticipated to increase by $3.5 billion to reach $25 billion by June 2027, moving up from approximately $21.5 billion currently, according to the central bank.
Jameel Ahmed, the governor of the State Bank of Pakistan, announced this forecast on Monday during a press conference following the monetary policy announcement, where the policy rate was lifted by 50 basis points to 12 percent.
$23 Billion by December
The central bank projects that reserves will hit $23 billion by December 2026 before rising further to $25 billion by June 2027.
Market dollar purchases drove the reserve recovery rather than fresh borrowing, the governor stated. He recalled that reserves in Pakistan fell under $3 billion during February 2023 prior to their rebound.
State Bank of Pakistan reserves remained just under $22 billion during the previous week.
Maintaining the momentum of reserve accumulation is necessary for economic stability, Ahmed emphasized.
Growth Forecast and Rate Hike
Current fiscal year economic growth is projected by the central bank to range between 3.5 and 4.5 percent.
Persistent inflation, rising energy costs, and concerns that geopolitical conflict might drive up global commodity prices prompted the interest rate increase from 11.5 percent to 12 percent.
Deteriorating inflation projections and the necessity of managing inflation expectations were cited by the State Bank of Pakistan as reasons for the move.
Risks Remain
Several factors threaten the reserve forecast, including strict international financial conditions, elevated global commodity prices, and supply chain limitations that might impact the goal.
