Goldman Sachs Sees Brent Oil Reaching $105 Per Barrel by December

Goldman Sachs raised its Brent crude forecast to $105 per barrel for December, citing growing supply risks and joining other major banks.

NationPulse Desk

Nov 2, 2026 · 5:01 PM 4 min read

Key takeaways

Goldman Sachs raised its December Brent crude oil forecast to $105 per barrel from $90.

ANZ and UBS also increased their year-end oil price forecasts to $105 and $110 per barrel respectively.

Analysts note that Middle Eastern supply buffers have weakened after eight months of disruption.

Pakistan imports most of its oil, meaning higher Brent prices will pressure domestic petrol and diesel costs.

Goldman Sachs Raises Brent Crude Oil Forecast for December

Goldman Sachs has raised its forecast for Brent crude oil and now expects the price to average $105 per barrel in December, up from its earlier estimate of $90. That is a jump of nearly 17 percent as market conditions shift and global energy demands face new pressures. The bank's analysts said the risks to oil supply have grown, according to Bloomberg. Goldman also raised its 2027 forecast to an average of $88 per barrel, up from $80.

This upward revision reflects a changing outlook for commodities traders, energy companies, and national treasuries worldwide. Financial institutions regularly adjust their commodity projections based on inventory data, geopolitical tensions, and production capacity. The shift by Goldman Sachs marks a significant change in how major financial institutions view the near-term stability of energy markets.

Energy analysts monitor these trends closely to advise governments and corporate clients on hedging strategies. As consumption patterns fluctuate and extraction costs change, banks update their macroeconomic models. The latest figures from Goldman Sachs point toward persistent tightness in the global energy supply chain through the end of the year.

Other Major Banks Predict High Oil Prices

Goldman is not alone in predicting elevated energy costs. ANZ raised its Brent forecast by 10 percent last week and now expects oil to end 2026 at $105 per barrel. Meanwhile, UBS sees it at $110 by the end of the year, showing an even higher degree of concern among financial forecasters regarding market tightness.

Financial institutions point to prolonged operational challenges across key energy-producing regions as the primary driver behind these upgraded targets. Markets have spent months adjusting to altered trade routes and shifting output levels. These cumulative pressures reduce the capacity of the global system to absorb unexpected shocks.

"Eight months of adapting to disrupted Middle Eastern supply have materially weakened the buffers that absorbed the initial shock," ANZ's analysts said in a recent note to clients.

This consensus among major banking institutions highlights a shared view that energy markets face structural challenges. When multiple independent forecasters arrive at similar pricing conclusions, industry participants pay close attention to the underlying risk factors.

Why Supply Buffers Have Weakened Over Time

The higher forecasts come even though oil flows from the Persian Gulf have reportedly returned to pre-war levels. Goldman had warned in September that oil could hit $120 again if regional tensions escalated further or if infrastructure suffered direct damage.

Even with physical volumes recovering, spare production capacity remains constrained among major exporting nations. Spare capacity acts as an insurance policy for the global economy, allowing producers to ramp up output if a sudden disruption occurs elsewhere. Without large buffers, any minor logistical hiccup or political dispute can trigger disproportionate price reactions on international exchanges.

Traders price these vulnerabilities directly into futures contracts, driving up benchmarks even when current physical delivery appears stable. The erosion of excess capacity means that markets remain highly sensitive to news from major producing areas.

What Factors Could Bring Oil Prices Down

Analysts agree that only a peace deal between Iran and the United States can push prices down for good. A diplomatic resolution would remove the geopolitical risk premium currently baked into energy valuations.

"For the risk premium to come off quickly, you would probably need to see a diplomatic solution that market participants see as sustainable," said Goldman's Daan Struyven.

The chances of such a deal by the end of the year look slim, despite recent talks between Iranian and Qatari officials on a possible agreement. Regional diplomacy involves complex negotiations over security guarantees, economic sanctions, and maritime access.

Until official accords are signed and implemented, traders will continue pricing in the probability of renewed friction. Sustained lower prices require structural changes in diplomatic relations rather than temporary lulls in hostilities.

What Higher Crude Prices Mean for Pakistan

Pakistan imports most of its oil, so a $105 Brent would keep pressure on petrol and diesel prices at home. The government recently cut the petrol levy to keep pump prices unchanged, but costlier crude would make that harder to sustain.

Import-dependent economies face difficult fiscal choices when global energy benchmarks rise. Higher costs for refined petroleum products feed directly into transportation expenses, electricity generation, and manufacturing overhead. National budgets feel the strain as trade deficits widen and foreign exchange reserves face heavy outflows.

Policymakers must balance consumer relief measures against broader macroeconomic stability. Absorbing high import bills through government subsidies or tax cuts often leads to wider fiscal deficits, creating a challenging dilemma for economic managers.

Questions and answers

What is Goldman Sachs' new oil price forecast for December?

Goldman Sachs expects Brent crude oil to average $105 per barrel in December, up from its earlier estimate of $90.

Why are banks raising their oil price forecasts?

Banks are raising their forecasts because risks to oil supply have grown and buffers that absorbed initial shocks have weakened over eight months of disruptions.

What could cause oil prices to drop permanently?

Analysts agree that only a sustainable diplomatic peace deal between Iran and the United States can push prices down for good.

How do high oil prices affect Pakistan?

Since Pakistan imports most of its oil, a $105 Brent price keeps pressure on domestic petrol and diesel prices and makes government subsidies harder to sustain.